The devastating floods that hit parts of Aceh, West Sumatra, and North Sumatra in early December 2025 were widely described as natural disasters. Yet behind the torrential rains lies a deeper and less examined factor: how private sector activities have reshaped forest landscapes, increasing vulnerability to climate extremes.

Over the past decade, large-scale agribusiness, logging concessions, and extractive industries have expanded rapidly across Sumatra. Satellite data and government reports consistently show significant forest loss in upstream areas—regions that once played a crucial role in absorbing rainfall and regulating water flow. As forests disappear, rainfall that would have been absorbed by soil and vegetation now rushes directly into rivers, triggering floods downstream.

In North Sumatra, communities living near plantation and industrial zones describe a noticeable change in their environment. Rivers that once ran clear now overflow more frequently, while flash floods arrive faster and with greater force. Local residents point to land clearing for oil palm and industrial crops as a major contributor, reducing natural buffers against extreme weather.

Despite growing corporate commitments to sustainability, including Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) pledges, implementation on the ground remains uneven. Many companies promote green credentials while continuing practices that fragment forests and disrupt watersheds. Weak enforcement, overlapping permits, and limited transparency further complicate accountability.

However, solutions exist. Environmental experts argue that stricter land-use regulation, restoration of critical forest areas, and genuine private sector engagement in sustainable practices could significantly reduce disaster risks. Some companies have begun adopting zero-deforestation commitments and investing in ecosystem restoration, though these efforts remain limited in scale.

Community-based forest management offers another pathway forward. Where local communities retain control over forest areas, deforestation rates tend to be lower, and landscapes are better managed to withstand climate impacts. Integrating these approaches into broader business and government strategies could strengthen climate resilience while supporting local livelihoods.

As climate change intensifies rainfall patterns across Indonesia, the question is no longer whether floods will occur, but how severe they will be. Holding the private sector accountable for its role in forest governance—and supporting solutions that prioritize long-term environmental stability—may determine whether future disasters can be prevented rather than merely endured.